Therefore, it is only natural that Lebanese economic growth would drop from 8% in 2010 to 2% in 2011, the year the Syrian crisis started. In addition, the GDP lost roughly USD 15 billion between 2011 and 2015. And according to economist Ghazi Wazni, this loss is expected to reach 20 million by the end of 2016.
The Syrian crisis has been a pivotal stage in the Lebanese course due to the negative repercussions it has caused at the economic, financial, political and social levels; the report published by the World Bank is only proof of the scale of the catastrophe that has hit Lebanon. The report said that the Syrian crisis had cost Lebanon more than USD 10 billion, distributed among healthcare bills, which cost for every Syrian displaced more than USD 450, and education bills, as Lebanese public schools have taken in more than 450 thousand Syrian pupils against 350 thousand Lebanese. It has also affected unemployment, which has risen to 60% among the young aged between 23 and 26, according to the «Labora» for employment, not to mention its impact on Lebanese institutions as a result of the crowding of Syrian institutions that are operating randomly in Lebanon... However, and despite this gloomy outlook, there are exceptions, as there are institutions that have benefited from the Syrian crisis. This is the case with Beirut Airport according to a statement made to the An-Nahar daily by Head of Commercial Division of Middle East Airlines (MEA) Nizar Khoury. According to Khoury, traffic has been impacted positively due to the Syrians using Beirut Airport as an alternative to Damascus International Airport, pointing out that passenger traffic at the airport increased between January and July 2016 by about 6.8% over the same period in 2015. This movement had peaked in 2014 and 2015 as it increased by 9.9%, but today its pace has declined as a result of the imposed visa measures (it should be noted that Syrians use the airline’s network and most of them travel to Jordan, Turkey and some Arab countries). With the increasing numbers of travelers using the airport, the figure is expected to go up to about 7,700,000 in 2016, an increase of 7% over 2015 (7,204,000). Khoury noted, «The capacity of the airport has reached its maximum limits in terms of passenger arrivals and departures, and must promptly undertake the expansion of infrastructure.»
The coup attempt in Turkey had a negative impact on Beirut Airport, as Khoury pointed out that passenger traffic on carriers between Beirut and Turkey dropped by 30%.
Wazni: An Increase in Revenues from Airline Ticket Taxes and Fees
According to the Department of Research, Studies and Documentation of the Ministry of Tourism, the total number of Syrian arrivals via Beirut Airport in 2012 were about 121,091, and in 2013 they numbered 314,889; an increase of 160%. In 2104, the figure dropped slightly to 303,182 and in 2015 the figure dropped further to 263,618. In 2016, there were 195,652 up to July.
These figures came as no surprise to the economist Ghazi Wazni, who said to the An-Nahar daily that the Syrian crisis and the risks of travelling from Damascus have made Beirut Airport a point of transition for a large number of displaced Syrians and businessmen going abroad. In addition, the use of the airport has had positive effects on MEA whose number of passengers increased significantly, and this has also reflected positively on state revenues from the fees and taxes charged on airline tickets. Another positive aspect mentioned by Wazni was related to Syrian businessmen who use Beirut Airport, some of whom spend several days in Lebanon, staying at hotels in Beirut before travelling to their final destinations.
Whereas the Syrian crisis has had repercussions on Lebanon, the transitory Turkish crisis has not impacted Lebanon, either positively or negatively. According to Wazni, this is due to the fact that Turkish tourism to Lebanon and investments are virtually non-existent. However, there has been a decline in trade due to the closure of border crossings.
Ghobril: Beirut Airport is the Most Suitable Gateway for Syrians
The reestablishment of political stability and proper security conditions in Lebanon in May 2008 with the Doha Accord helped to revive tourism activity in the country, as the number of incoming tourists increased by 31% in 2008, by 39% in 2009 and by 17% in 2010. In parallel, passenger traffic at the Hariri International Airport, i.e. the number of arrivals and departures, increased by 21.4% in 2008, by 23% in 2009 and by 11% in 2010. more specifically, the number of arrivals rose by 21% in 2008, by 23% in 2009 and by 11% in 2010, which means that the number of arrivals increased by1.1 million persons between 2007 and 2010, while the number of tourists reached 2.16 million in 2010.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in March 2011, tourism activity in Lebanon regressed significantly, with the number of visitors falling by 24% in 2011 and by an additional 17.5% in 2012 and 7% in 2013, resulting in a decline of 894,000 visitors between 2010 and 2013, which constitutes a decline of 41% in the same period. It is logical that activity at the Hariri International Airport movement would be affected by this sharp decline, as the airport is the main gateway for the overwhelming majority of tourists coming to Lebanon.
But the decline in tourist arrivals was not accompanied by a decline in the airport's traffic, as the number of arrivals and departures at the airport rose by 27.4% in 2011, while the number of tourist arrivals fell by 24% that same year. In addition, the number of departures from the Hariri International Airport increased by 28% and the number of arrivals rose by 27% in 2011, while transit passengers via the airport grew by 85.5%. Accordingly, the number of arrivals to Lebanon through the airport reached 3.5 million, while the number of departures from it was 3.52 million in 2011, two record highs when compared to the number of airport users during the tourism boom between 2008 and 2010.
«This considerable rise in airport traffic» according to Nassib Ghobril, the Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research and Analysis Department of the Byblos Bank Group, «is due to the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in March 2011, the deterioration of the security situation in that country, the targeting of the Damascus International Airport and the roads leading to it, and the foreign airlines ceasing gradually their flights to Syria, which forced a large number of Syrians to use the Hariri International Airport due to the geographical proximity of Damascus to Beirut and the large number of Arab and foreign airlines that use the Beirut airport and, consequently, to the large number of flights and the existence of flight connections via Beirut to major European capitals and cities, and to other destinations in North and South America and Australia, and other countries and regions.» He added, «The skill and experience of the Lebanese travel agencies and Middle East Airlines have helped promptly and without delays to provide seats on board aircrafts, tickets and travel programs requested by Syrian citizens.»
This trend continued in 2012, as the number of departures from the Beirut airport reached 3 million and the number of arrivals 2.9 million. They are also two figures that exceed the number of arrivals and departures in 2010, which was the best tourism year in Lebanon’s modern history. Accordingly, the number of departures and arrivals via Beirut's airport reached 5.9 million in 2012. Although this figure constitutes a 16% decline from the record high of 2011, it remained lower than the decline in the number of tourists of 17.5% in that same year.
The airport traffic was improved again in 2013, as the number of arrivals and departures reached 6.25 million, which is a rise of 6% over 2012. Mr. Ghobril said, «The persisting conflict in Syria made the Hariri International Airport the most suitable gateway for a large number of Syrian citizens who were forced to flee to Lebanon and stay here, especially Syrian businessmen who want to conduct their business and continue to communicate with other parts of the world, as well as for a large number of Syrian families who used the Beirut Airport to emigrate,» adding, «In conjunction with the aggravation of the Syrian conflict and the high number of Syrians displaced to Lebanon, especially starting in 2013, the number of officials and employees of international foreign relief agencies, NGOs, Arab and foreign charities, and various UN agencies staff arriving in Lebanon increased, in order to deliver aid to displaced Syrians through these organizations.» This contributed, in his opinion, to the rise in airport traffic.
These figures take Ghobril back to the «objections that were raised at the time about the expansion of Beirut Airport in the late 1990s. Some considered that Lebanon will not be able to attract a sufficient number of travelers or tourists to justify the expansion works at the airport, only to discover years later the importance of the project. In fact, some stakeholders have demanded the expansion of the airport’s capacities so it would be able to accommodate a bigger number of arrivals and departures, regardless of the relatively temporary repercussions of the Syrian conflict on the use of the airport.» Ghobril cited the «record figures» of the traffic via Beirut Airport, as the number of arrivals and departures in 2015 reached roughly 7.2 million, to reaffirm the need for and the importance of this project.